Deal or No Deal

Over the NHL offseason, it seems the league’s GMs decided they loved record-breaking contracts, changing the league's idea of how much a player is worth. Young and prime players have changed the league and their contracts with their actions this off-season. The NHL and its executives must learn to adapt to this new playing field.

Last Season, the league’s consensus greatest active player, Connor McDavid, signed a two-year contract worth $12.5 million per year. At the time, this deal was relatively cheap for a player of his caliber, especially when the deal was compared to Kirill Kaprizov’s, a top-10 NHLer, $17 million-a-year deal he signed earlier that year. The McDavid contract seemed to be what most of the NHL based their contracts off of, with only a handful of players making anything more than McDavid himself. However, this offseason blew up after the Philadelphia Flyers offer-sheeted Anaheim Ducks' 21-year-old star center, Leo Carlsson, a 5-year, $90 million contract worth $18 million per year. The Ducks decided to match the offer sheet, signing the Restricted Free Agent to that deal, making him the highest-paid NHL player of all time. At the time, this deal seemed like a huge overpay as Carlsson has yet to have a season with over 1 point per game. However, this is a masterclass performance by Flyers GM Daniel Brier, as since the Ducks matched the offer, they are left with barely any cap space while still having young stars to sign, and if the Ducks are unable to match the offer, the Flyers will need a new 1st line 21-year-old center. This insane contract set a new benchmark for an NHL player’s worth, changing the structure of a contract and how much of the salary cap star players should take up.

Another change in deals this offseason was the elimination of 8-year deals. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), between the NHL and the Players’ Association dictated that 8-year contracts, the previous maximum length for a contract, would no longer be allowed, making 7-year deals the new max. This change was set to be implemented at the beginning of this season. This caused many GMs to try and lock down young players to long-term deals, such as Capitals Forward Ryan Leonard, who signed an 8-year, $84 million contract, worth $10.5 million per year. This contract was also inflated due to the Carlsson Contract.

Shortly after the Carlsson deal, young NHL superstar Macklin Celebrini, coming off of an 115-point season and finishing 4th in league scoring, signed yet another record-breaking deal. The Sharks inked Celebrini to a 5-year, $94 million contract, worth $18.8 million per year, making him the highest-paid player at the time. This season, Celebrini is currently in the last year of his entry-level contract worth $975,000 a year, but his new deal will kick in at the beginning of the 2027-2028 season. Unlike the Leo Carlsson deal, many fans found Celebrini’s contract to be very agreeable. His 115 points scored last season were 56 points higher than the next best player on the Sharks, Will Smith, who had 59 points. Doing this and making the first-line on Canada’s Olympic roster at just 19 years old is something that we only see from true generational talents and Hall of Famers, two things that Celebrini will likely be. Getting Celebrini for that price before offer sheets rolled in was a smart move by Sharks GM Mike Grier, who clearly learned a lesson after observing the Leo Carlsson situation.

Another young star in the league, Connor Bedard, who finished the year with 75 points in 69 games, also signed a new deal before the season. Bedard signed for 5 years at $15 million per year, making him the highest-paid player on his team and the 5th highest-paid player in the league. Bedard clearly showed signs of greatness, particularly in the time he played last season before injury kept him out for 13 games, coming off of a sophomore slump in the previous season. Some will say it’s an underpay, and that Bedard could have gotten more, and others will say that he hasn’t proven that he’s at the same caliber as Celebrini. Either way, this deal will help the Hawks add more pieces by taking up less cap space. No matter how you see it, you can’t deny that this contract solidified how Carlsson's deal changed the landscape of the NHL and its contracts.

Lastly, after everyone was already growing tired of the term “record-breaking deal,” another one popped out of Denver, with the Colorado Avalanche signing star defenseman Cale Makar to an 8-year, $163.2 million contract worth $20.4 million per year, just $400,000 less than the highest possible AAV, per the current NHL CBA. The Avs are in a tough spot now when it comes to cap compliance, with Makar’s new deal adding to the list of highly paid players, like Martin Necas ($11.5 million AAV) and Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million AAV). When asked about the Makar deal, President of the Avalanche and acting GM Joe Sakic responded, “You can’t win without superstars.” The Avs better hope he’s right. Last season, last playoff injuries, most notably to Makar, got Colorado eliminated in the Western Conference Final. The biggest lesson that fans took away from their run was how important Cale Makar is to that team and their success, which, in a way, justifies the contract that the one-time Stanley Cup-winning defenseman signed with the Avs, which will start during the 2027-2028 season.

After a summer of crazy deals, young stars setting new expectations, and proven superstars demanding their pay, the landscape of the NHL and its contracts will never be the same. With the salary cap rising in the next few seasons, we will see how these contracts limit their teams, and we’ll see how these players are able to perform now that they have their shiny new deals.